How likely is a nuclear war?

Nuclear weapons have been around since 1945 and in that time we have seen the numbers of nations attaining nuclear weapons capabilities grow to 9:

• United States
• Russia
• United Kingdom
• France
• China
• India
• Pakistan
• Israel
• North Korea (maybe, we’re not entirely sure)

 

Yields

The yield of a nuclear weapon is the force released when it explodes.  This is normally referred to as kilotons or megatons.  1 kiloton means that the explosion will be the equivalent of detonating 1,000 tonnes of TNT.  1 megaton is the equivalent of detonating 1,000,000 tonnes of TNT.  The nuclear bombs that were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945 were 15 kiloton yield, causing large-scale damage to both cities, and these weapons are small in comparison to the nuclear weapons of today. The most common nuclear weapons have a yield of 500 kilotons.  These weapons are roughly 33 times more powerful than the two nukes dropped on Japan at the end of 1945.  One of these weapons would be enough to destroy Manhattan.  In contrast, that largest nuclear bomb is the Russian Tsar Bomba (RDS-220) with a yield of 100 megatons.  This weapon would be enough to not only destroy Manhattan but the entire state of New York.  

Numbers

There are many reports of how many nuclear weapons are on the planet, but the truth is that we will never know for certain as these nuclear projects are generally kept as a very closely guarded secret.  The latest information we have suggests that there may be as many as 15,705 nukes held by the nuclear powers with approximately 83% of these ready to fire at any moment.

Country	Nuclear Arsenal
United States	6,970
Russia	7,300
Israel	400
United Kingdom	215
France	300
China	260
India	120
Pakistan	130
North Korea	10

The latest information we have suggests that there may be as many as 15,705 nukes. Click To Tweet  

Chances of a nuclear war

While several nations have massive stockpiles of nuclear weapons none of them has yet gone to a state of nuclear war.  We have seen the Cold War unfold and the tension from the Cuban Missile Crisis, yet still there is no nuclear war.  It would seem that they will never be used and that they are a great deterrent to wars but this couldn’t be further from the truth. Nuclear weapons give off massive doses of lethal radiation that makes them very impractical to use on a large scale because even if you win the war, you will ultimately lose because radiation will kill you and your country.  What is needed are nuclear bombs that do not give off harmful radioactive fallout… and these have already been created!  Due to restrictions on nuclear tests, it became necessary for these weapons to be battlefield tested.  The first such tests occurred in New York on 11th September 2001 when several modified Mk-54 SADM (Davy Crockett) tactical nuclear devices, with a yield of 10 tonnes (0.01 kilotons) were used to demolish the Trade Centre complex.  These modified warheads did not release lethal radioactive fallout, they did, however, release one radioactive element but this was not fatal to organic life. Since those attacks, we have seen nuclear powers campaign refurbished nuclear programs.  Because the test was successful they are now ramping up production of non-radioactive nuclear weapons.  The United Kingdom has encountered fierce resistance to plans for upgrading its Trident Nuclear Programme despite the country being in the midst of an economic collapse. Once these programs have been successful upgraded a nuclear war will follow. Despite the mainstream media blackout on the subject, Syria has been facing nuclear attacks since 2013.  Approximately one nuclear weapon is being dropped on various Syrian towns and cities every 2-3 months.  These weapons are low yield Mk-54 type weapons and several variants of these resulting in explosions of the magnitude 10-50 kilotons. Not only is nuclear war more than possible, it is highly likely within the next 10 years.